What if a supply disruption exposes US dependence on imported copper for grid and EV build-out?
A supply disruption exposes growing US dependence on imported refined copper for grid and EV build-out, spiking domestic premiums and delaying electrification projects, an IEA/DOE supply-security concern.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A supply disruption exposes growing US dependence on imported refined copper for grid and EV build-out, spiking domestic premiums and delaying electrification projects, an IEA/DOE supply-security concern. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.54–-0.14% · other way +1.25% (n=12) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -3.63–+1.57% · other way +7.57% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.57–+0.07% · other way +1.17% (n=12) |
| 4 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.92–+0.87% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.44–-0.26% · other way +6.78% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.44–+0.52% · other way +2.93% (n=12) |
| 7 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.97–+1.18% · other way -1.7% (n=9) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.51–+0.26% · other way +1.94% (n=12) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.45–+0.05% · other way +5.2% (n=12) |
| 10 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.51–+2.14% · other way -1.23% (n=10) |
| 11 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.22–+0.24% · other way +6.1% (n=12) |
| 12 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.93–+1.32% · other way +10.41% (n=12) |
| 13 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.22–+0.83% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.71–+0.02% · other way -0.2% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 31 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -2.2% | 78% | 22 | 0.52 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -0.8% | 74% | 19 | 0.41 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 19 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -1.4% | 69% | 19 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 19 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.5% | 64% | 19 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -3.8% | 61% | 15 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +5.4% · 5d +7.2% | 61% | 20 | 0.18 | · |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.2% | 59% | 19 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.9% | 59% | 19 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.5% | 58% | 15 | 0.12 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.1% | 56% | 19 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 19 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |