What if US data-center load lifts both gas burn and grid-power prices?
Surging AI data-center electricity demand lifts both gas-fired generation and wholesale power prices across PJM and the Southeast, a structural tailwind for gas producers and merchant generators alike.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Surging AI data-center electricity demand lifts both gas-fired generation and wholesale power prices across PJM and the Southeast, a structural tailwind for gas producers and merchant generators alike. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · AI capex ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.68–+2.99% · other way +0.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.52–+1.19% · other way -0.8% (n=11) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.21–+3.7% · other way +5.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -8.72–+5.13% · other way +12.17% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.2–+0.83% · other way -1.05% (n=12) |
| 6 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.64–+5.3% · other way +3.27% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.43–+1.37% · other way -1.22% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.3–+2.05% · other way -0.61% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.97–+1.04% · other way +1.81% (n=12) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.75–+1.38% · other way -4.11% (n=12) |
| 11 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.48–+2.68% · other way -3.06% (n=12) |
| 12 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -1.78–+2.94% · other way -2.28% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -6.83–+14.45% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -3.83–+8.61% · other way -1.9% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -9.1% · 5d -3.8% | 66% | 13 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +5.1% · 5d +2.4% | 66% | 13 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.1% | 64% | 15 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -4.9% | 65% | 14 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 13 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 13 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -3.0% | 62% | 7 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 11 | 0.17 | · |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.6% | 59% | 13 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 19 | 0.13 | · |
| ASML ASML | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 13 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +8bp | 54% | 18 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 52% | 13 | 0.03 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +6bp | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |