What if a prolonged US heat dome drives record cooling demand and threatens rolling blackouts?
A prolonged heat dome drives record cooling demand and thermal/transmission derating, threatening rolling blackouts the Fed and NERC treat as an intensifying acute physical-risk to power and credit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A prolonged heat dome drives record cooling demand and thermal/transmission derating, threatening rolling blackouts the Fed and NERC treat as an intensifying acute physical-risk to power and credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.15–+0.64% · other way +2.29% (n=12) |
| 2 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.04–+1.04% · other way +4.84% (n=12) |
| 3 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -9.02–+3.86% · other way +8.78% (n=12) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.28–+4.31% · other way +6.98% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.16–-0.01% · other way +0.06% (n=12) |
| 6 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -4.33–+10.77% · other way +2.4% (n=12) |
| 7 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -1.76–+5.38% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 23 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 70% | 15 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -8.8% · 5d -4.1% | 70% | 15 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +4.4% · 5d +2.1% | 64% | 15 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 13 | 0.15 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.6% | 55% | 15 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 15 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 23 | 0.05 | · |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +7bp | 51% | 21 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +4bp | 51% | 23 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.6% | 52% | 15 | 0.02 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 45% | 15 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.4% · 5d +2.8% | 50% | 9 | 0.00 | · |