What if US-Japan-Korea trilateral cracks as Seoul-Tokyo feud reignites?
A historical-grievance flare-up between Seoul and Tokyo fractures trilateral coordination, weakening deterrence; regional geopolitical risk rises, KRW and Korean and Japanese equities wobble.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A historical-grievance flare-up between Seoul and Tokyo fractures trilateral coordination, weakening deterrence; regional geopolitical risk rises, KRW and Korean and Japanese equities wobble. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.5% hist +0.7–+3.45% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.66–-0.96% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.28–-0.33% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.0–+-0.0% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.05–-0.24% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.52–+1.53% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.25–+0.36% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 8 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.67–-0.27% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 9 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.97–+0.28% · other way +2.51% (n=12) |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.88–-0.14% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.24–+2.44% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.57–+0.64% · other way +2.73% (n=12) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.97–+0.26% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 14 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 70% | 32 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.5% · 5d +3.1% | 68% | 11 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -7.2% | 67% | 21 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 66% | 32 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.0% | 63% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 30 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -1.3% | 62% | 39 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.6% | 63% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -10.3% ↺ fades | 64% | 11 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -2.1% | 61% | 33 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 60% | 32 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.9% | 58% | 33 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 33 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |