What if Washington pauses new US LNG exports?
A US LNG export-approval pause and feedgas curbs strands Henry Hub (bearish US gas) while starving Europe and Asia of incremental cargoes (bullish TTF/JKM); the trade is short Henry Hub vs long TTF, with EUR softer. Rhymes with the Jan-2024 Biden LNG permit pause, which weighed on forward Henry Hub and firmed European forwards without touching crude. Transmission: the US is now the marginal LNG supplier to the EU; forward angle: feedgas curbs (not just permits) are far more bullish for TTF than the 2024 pause, which only hit future projects.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Washington halts new LNG export approvals and curbs feedgas, stranding Henry Hub and starving Europe. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Fertilizer cost ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.