What if LNG export ramp and AI data-centre demand spike US natural gas prices?
A demand surge (LNG export ramp plus AI data-centre power) and supply constraint spike US Henry Hub gas, raising power, industrial and fertilizer costs domestically, a structural-demand energy scenario.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A demand surge (LNG export ramp plus AI data-centre power) and supply constraint spike US Henry Hub gas, raising power, industrial and fertilizer costs domestically, a structural-demand energy scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · AI capex ▲ · Fertilizer cost ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.52–+1.02% · other way +13.33% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -1.69–+1.12% · other way -3.4% (n=12) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.17–+0.73% · other way -1.08% (n=12) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.22–+0.24% · other way -1.52% (n=12) |
| 5 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.0–+0.31% · other way +7.23% (n=12) |
| 6 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.11–+0.62% · other way +3.49% (n=12) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.2–+0.84% · other way -2.01% (n=12) |
| 8 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.22–-0.01% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 9 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -3.49–+13.69% · other way +3.7% (n=12) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.3–+0.68% · other way +0.11% (n=12) |
| 11 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -2.8–+8.23% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.9% | 62% | 34 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +5bp | 62% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 34 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 58% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -2.1% | 56% | 35 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.0% | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +4bp | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.9% | 54% | 34 | 0.06 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -5.1% | 48% | 34 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 44% | 27 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 46% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 44% | 27 | 0.00 | · |