What if a US industrial recession collapses diesel demand and signals broad activity weakness?
A US-led industrial recession collapses diesel demand, the freight-and-manufacturing barometer, dragging crude lower and signaling broad activity weakness.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A US-led industrial recession collapses diesel demand, the freight-and-manufacturing barometer, dragging crude lower and signaling broad activity weakness. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.41–+0.2% · other way +1.86% (n=11) |
| 2 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.14–+1.65% · other way +0.45% (n=11) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.64–+3.3% · other way +8.68% (n=11) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.68–+0.82% · other way -1.54% (n=11) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.44–+4.65% · other way +3.67% (n=8) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.37–+0.46% · other way -0.13% (n=11) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.82–+1.16% · other way -3.86% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.58–+0.69% · other way -0.58% (n=11) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.91–+0.35% · other way +3.79% (n=8) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.98–+1.26% · other way +5.05% (n=8) |
| 12 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.67–+0.12% · other way +0.3% (n=11) |
| 13 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.65–+0.41% · other way -0.14% (n=11) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.38–+0.61% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 36 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.2% | 75% | 32 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d +1bp ↺ fades | 68% | 36 | 0.31 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.5% | 66% | 28 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 28 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 28 | 0.24 | · |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 28 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 31 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 28 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.4% · 5d -4.4% ↺ fades | 56% | 28 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +1.2% | 53% | 26 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 53% | 36 | 0.05 | · |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +4.8% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 27 | 0.03 | ✓ matches cascade |