What if US rig count drops as sub-$60 WTI kills marginal drilling?
Sub-$60 WTI pushes drilling below breakeven for marginal acreage, dropping the rig count and signaling a coming plateau in US output; the supply response is the mechanism that eventually rebalances.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Sub-$60 WTI pushes drilling below breakeven for marginal acreage, dropping the rig count and signaling a coming plateau in US output; the supply response is the mechanism that eventually rebalances. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation expectations ▼ · Oil demand ▼ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.25–+0.52% · other way -5.46% (n=8) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.71–+0.42% · other way -4.62% (n=8) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.2–+0.78% · other way -2.65% (n=8) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.08–+0.15% · other way +8.74% (n=7) |
| 6 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.69–+3.81% · other way +19.76% (n=8) |
| 7 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.31–+0.82% · other way +0.05% (n=12) |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -4.39–+11.97% · other way +33.7% (n=11) |
| 9 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.85–+2.71% · other way +7.14% (n=8) |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -5.47–+10.49% · other way +27.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 63% | 30 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +7bp | 62% | 39 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.3% | 59% | 31 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.12 | · |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +3.7% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 30 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 54% | 32 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +7bp | 54% | 39 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -2.0% | 53% | 30 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 52% | 31 | 0.05 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -8.0% | 49% | 24 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.0% · 5d +0.1% | 50% | 39 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -4.2% ↺ fades | 44% | 28 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 37% | 30 | 0.00 | · |