What if Utility sector-wide cost-of-capital spike on long-rate back-up?
A jump in long-term rates raises utility financing costs across the sector, pressuring rate-base-funded growth plans and de-rating capital-intensive utilities on cost-of-capital headwinds.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A jump in long-term rates raises utility financing costs across the sector, pressuring rate-base-funded growth plans and de-rating capital-intensive utilities on cost-of-capital headwinds. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Mortgage rates ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.47–-0.25% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.49–-0.17% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.38–+5.81% · other way +25.67% (n=12) |
| 4 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -0.39–+7.78% · other way +12.9% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.33–-0.01% · other way +0.77% (n=12) |
| 6 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.55–+0.88% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 7 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -0.17–+6.47% · other way +16.3% (n=12) |
| 8 | Homebuilders XHB 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.8–+0.14% · other way -1.06% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.65–+0.06% · other way +6.0% (n=12) |
| 11 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -4.09–+1.59% · other way +5.81% (n=12) |
| 12 | Arm ARMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.93–+0.48% · other way +4.01% (n=10) |
| 13 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–+1.21% · other way -0.52% (n=12) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.24–+0.1% · other way +2.29% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 75% | 40 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +7.0% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 63% | 37 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.21 | · |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -5.5% | 63% | 27 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +5.7% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.6% · 5d +2.1% | 58% | 37 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.5% | 60% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +4bp | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | · |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.9% | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.07 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 48% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |