What if Utility wildfire-liability shock blows out a Western utility's credit?
Catastrophic wildfire liabilities overwhelm a major Western utility's balance sheet, blowing out its spreads and equity in a solvency scare that ripples across the regulated-utility sector.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Catastrophic wildfire liabilities overwhelm a major Western utility's balance sheet, blowing out its spreads and equity in a solvency scare that ripples across the regulated-utility sector. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.56–+0.71% · other way +26.94% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.52–+0.76% · other way -0.93% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.13–+0.11% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.73–+0.7% · other way +6.02% (n=11) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.43–-0.08% · other way -0.08% (n=12) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -1.97–+5.42% · other way -2.6% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.28–+0.89% · other way +5.63% (n=11) |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.73–-0.02% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.38–-0.13% · other way -0.69% (n=12) |
| 11 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.25–-0.12% · other way +0.3% (n=12) |
| 12 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.5–+4.57% · other way +23.64% (n=11) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.6–+0.97% · other way +2.39% (n=12) |
| 14 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.3–+0.12% · other way +2.37% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.1% | 70% | 19 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -2.0% | 67% | 37 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 64% | 33 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -9bp · 5d -3bp | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.7% · 5d +1.1% | 62% | 16 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.9% | 60% | 37 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.1% | 57% | 37 | 0.13 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d -4bp | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.9% · 5d +1.2% | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -10.9% | 56% | 18 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -2.8% ↺ fades | 56% | 37 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 52% | 37 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |