What if the US hikes Vietnam's transshipment tariff to 60%?
Doubling Vietnam's transshipment rate to 60% guts the China-plus-one workaround, so apparel/electronics importers (Nike, on-shore assemblers) eat margin and CNY weakens as rerouting fails. Rhymes with the 2018-19 trade war when supply chains fled to Vietnam; reversing that escape valve re-concentrates tariff incidence on China, pressuring the yuan back toward prior 7.3+ stress. Vietnam is now a top-5 US import source; the forward angle is that there is no third hub left to absorb the diversion, so cost pass-through is stickier than in 2019.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. US lifts Vietnam's transshipment tariff from 40% to 60%, alleging Chinese rerouting and gutting the China-plus-one hub. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.6% hist -2.46–-0.49% · other way -0.31% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -2.14–-0.69% · other way +2.49% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -3.86–+0.01% · other way +4.56% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.41–-0.58% · other way +3.61% (n=12) |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.63–-0.02% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -4.25–+0.76% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.3–-0.27% · other way +1.53% (n=12) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -5.36–+1.06% · other way +3.77% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -3.41–+0.46% · other way +1.1% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.22–-0.58% · other way -0.23% (n=12) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.72–-0.24% · other way -1.52% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.2–-0.26% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -4.77–+0.92% · other way -1.25% (n=12) |
| 14 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.73–+0.66% · other way -5.04% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade on DXY/USDJPY up; the dollar's measured dips ride 2025 risk-off windows, but a Vietnam transshipment shock is China-supply-chain bullish-USD today — positioning differs from those broad tariff selloffs.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 28 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.2% | 73% | 23 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -9.5% | 70% | 19 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 25 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.4% | 65% | 23 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.1% | 64% | 27 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -14.2% · 5d -19.8% | 67% | 13 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.5% | 63% | 25 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.4% | 62% | 23 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 23 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.7% | 60% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 58% | 23 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 23 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -3.5% | 59% | 27 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 27 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
Why this probability
Vietnam transshipment crackdown already live; incremental hike plausible amid active China rerouting fight. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.