What if the Wa State keeps the Man Maw tin mine shut?
The Wa authority re-suspending Man Maw indefinitely starves China's tin smelters of feed ore — the direct move is tin (the most concentrated, illiquid base metal) sharply higher and Chinese refined-tin output down; the semis/Alibaba cascade is mis-mapped despite tin's solder use being real. Rhymes with the 2023 Man Maw suspension that lifted LME tin above $30k and the 2024 squeeze. Forward angle: Myanmar feeds ~a third of China's tin concentrate, so a permanent halt stacks on DRC/Indonesia tightness — the trade is LME/SHFE tin and solder-cost pass-through to electronics assembly, not a tech-index sell-off.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The Wa authority rejects reopening applications and re-suspends Man Maw indefinitely, starving China's tin smelters of feed ore. :: The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.