What if Weak freight and warm winter crush US distillate demand?
A trucking-freight recession and a mild winter slash US distillate consumption, swelling inventories and collapsing the ULSD crack as refiners cut runs to clear the diesel overhang.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A trucking-freight recession and a mild winter slash US distillate consumption, swelling inventories and collapsing the ULSD crack as refiners cut runs to clear the diesel overhang. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.27–+2.49% · other way +9.85% (n=10) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -5.01–+5.67% · other way +1.03% (n=7) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.95–+2.4% · other way +6.46% (n=7) |
| 5 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.44–+1.47% · other way -4.99% (n=10) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.29–+0.57% · other way -0.49% (n=11) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.89–+0.45% · other way +6.17% (n=7) |
| 8 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.92–+0.2% · other way +1.98% (n=10) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.28–+0.4% · other way -1.14% (n=12) |
| 10 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.5–+0.72% · other way -0.57% (n=10) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -0.83–-0.08% · other way +22.4% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1bp hist -2.23–+0.26% · other way +28.1% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 32 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -2bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 62% | 32 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 25 | 0.21 | · |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.4% | 61% | 25 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 62% | 27 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 57% | 26 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -4.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 25 | 0.08 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.3% | 54% | 32 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.4% · 5d -6.4% ↺ fades | 52% | 11 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -1.8% ↺ fades | 42% | 15 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -2.8% | 44% | 11 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 48% | 23 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +1bp | 49% | 32 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 50% | 32 | 0.00 | · |