What if an ageing Western reactor suffers a partial meltdown?
A station-blackout partial meltdown at an aging Western reactor triggers evacuations and a global nuclear-policy reversal — a risk-off tail that spikes VIX and forces deleveraging out of Nasdaq and crypto. Direct analogue: Fukushima (March 2011), which crashed risk briefly and drove Germany's nuclear exit plus a uranium/utility repricing. Forward angle: the durable second-order trade is a policy U-turn against nuclear that re-elevates gas/coal demand and kills the SMR re-rate — bearish uranium, bullish firm fossil power.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the Tail risk horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A station-blackout partial meltdown at an aging Western reactor triggers evacuations and a global nuclear-policy reversal. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.