What if Western refining build-out finally breaks the midstream chokepoint?
A cluster of US, EU and allied lithium, nickel and rare-earth refineries reaches commercial output, breaking China's midstream chokehold and re-rating the Western supply chain.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A cluster of US, EU and allied lithium, nickel and rare-earth refineries reaches commercial output, breaking China's midstream chokehold and re-rating the Western supply chain. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.63–+0.16% · other way -11.23% (n=4) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.14–+0.56% · other way -13.6% (n=4) |
| 3 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.93–+0.33% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 4 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.53–+0.32% · other way -12.84% (n=4) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.09–+0.64% |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.16–+5.25% · other way -6.79% (n=4) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.28–+0.51% |
| 9 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.45–+0.39% |
| 10 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +-0.0–+0.35% · other way +102.88% (n=4) |
| 11 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.36–+0.45% · other way -1.02% (n=4) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.32–-0.04% · other way +1.87% (n=4) |
| 13 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.66–+0.43% · other way -1.1% (n=12) |
| 14 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.08–+0.72% · other way +53.08% (n=4) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.2% | 73% | 28 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.9% | 71% | 28 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -3.4% | 69% | 28 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 68% | 28 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.0% | 69% | 33 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.0% | 68% | 28 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 71% | 28 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.3% | 69% | 28 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 28 | 0.27 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.6% | 59% | 32 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.9% | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |