What if worsening wildfire-smoke seasons drive a sustained rise in respiratory insurance claims?
Worsening wildfire-smoke seasons drive a sustained rise in respiratory health- and life-insurance claims across western North America, a slow casualty-side climate channel insurers underprice.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Worsening wildfire-smoke seasons drive a sustained rise in respiratory health- and life-insurance claims across western North America, a slow casualty-side climate channel insurers underprice. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Pandemic shock ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -9.09–+1.4% · other way +2.77% (n=11) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.63–+0.38% · other way +14.34% (n=11) |
| 3 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.85–+0.69% · other way -0.86% (n=11) |
| 4 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.71–+0.66% · other way +2.29% (n=11) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -7.73–+4.94% · other way +1.79% (n=9) |
| 6 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.97–+0.59% · other way -0.42% (n=11) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.74–+0.82% · other way +4.89% (n=9) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.06–+0.7% · other way +0.98% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.14–+0.79% · other way +4.84% (n=9) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.8–+12.69% · other way -4.33% (n=11) |
| 12 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.77–+0.91% · other way +2.32% (n=11) |
| 13 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.4–+0.83% · other way +0.6% (n=11) |
| 14 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.67–+0.73% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -7.4% · 5d -3.7% | 71% | 39 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.9% | 70% | 39 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -3.8% | 66% | 17 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -0.8% | 65% | 39 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -1bp | 65% | 40 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.9% | 63% | 21 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.3% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -8.1% | 61% | 11 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -10.4% · 5d -0.9% | 60% | 10 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 39 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.2% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.7% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |