What if Yamal LNG stranded as EU ban bites?
The full EU embargo on Russian LNG strands Yamal volumes that cannot be rerouted at scale, tightening the global gas balance and structurally lifting TTF and JKM.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The full EU embargo on Russian LNG strands Yamal volumes that cannot be rerouted at scale, tightening the global gas balance and structurally lifting TTF and JKM. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.