What if Yen-carry unwind from a Korea war scare hits global equities?
A Peninsula crisis triggers a flight to JPY safety, forcing leveraged yen-funded carry positions to unwind worldwide; global risk-off and risk-parity deleveraging compound the equity selloff.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Peninsula crisis triggers a flight to JPY safety, forcing leveraged yen-funded carry positions to unwind worldwide; global risk-off and risk-parity deleveraging compound the equity selloff. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.8% hist +1.18–+4.08% · other way -7.11% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.79–-1.01% · other way +0.84% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.23–-0.23% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.24–-0.46% · other way +0.02% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.4–-0.27% · other way +23.53% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.09–-0.41% · other way -3.36% (n=10) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.98–+0.21% · other way +3.85% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -8.22–+1.62% · other way +4.52% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.85–+0.78% · other way +10.63% (n=11) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.62–-0.25% · other way +2.42% (n=12) |
| 12 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.6–-0.17% · other way -0.21% (n=12) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.54–-0.22% · other way -1.04% (n=12) |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.44–+3.95% · other way +3.13% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 67% | 39 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.0% | 66% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 39 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.8% · 5d -6.5% | 68% | 24 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +3.8% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 38 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -1.3% | 65% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 64% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.3% | 59% | 40 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +6.3% · 5d +1.6% | 56% | 15 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 55% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 39 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 54% | 39 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |