Volatility
Volatility (VIX)
VIX16.73← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves Volatility (VIX), from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 55% · 6562 up vs 2239 down scenarios
Volatility (VIX) leans higher near-term — high conviction. Of the 8,801 mapped scenarios that move Volatility (VIX), 6,562 push it up and 2,239 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing Volatility (VIX) higher is RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine (44% likely, ~9.1% on Volatility (VIX)). This week our model already has Volatility (VIX) biased lower. Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.
What flips the up-lean: Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line (37% likely).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Every scenario that moves Volatility (VIX) — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Volatility (VIX) up
| RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine | 44% | +9.1% | 0–6 months |
| Ukraine farmland war damage | 35% | +10.0% | 0–6 months |
| Gaza war regional spillover | 27% | +12.6% | 0–6 months |
| Lebanon ceasefire collapses, Beirut bombed | 27% | +12.6% | 0–6 months |
+ 6,558 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Volatility (VIX) down
| Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the line | 37% | −7.9% | 0–6 months |
| Russia-Ukraine ceasefire | 16% | −13.9% | 0–6 months |
| Russia and Ukraine sign a final peace settlement | 41% | −9.3% | 1–3 years |
| Junta-coastal détente reopens Sahel trade | 54% | −6.8% | 1–3 years |
+ 2,235 more down-scenarios in the library
Related Volatility: — · Run your own what-if → · What others are asking →