Volatility
Volatility (VIX)
VIX—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:VIX · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for Volatility (VIX), from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 55% · 6562 up vs 2239 down scenarios
Volatility (VIX) leans higher near-term — high conviction. Of the 8,801 mapped scenarios that move Volatility (VIX), 6,562 push it up and 2,239 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing Volatility (VIX) higher is RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine (event odds not yet verified; ~9.1% estimated impact on Volatility (VIX) if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the up-lean: Russia-Ukraine ceasefire (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
Volatility (VIX) is a close call over the next 7 days: 51.3% chance of a lower close means the evidence is only slightly tilted, not high-conviction.
The forecast swing band is -5.5% to +18.8% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The upside side of the band is wider, so the read has a positive payoff skew even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 46.5% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from the scenario graph. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur faminebullish pressure · event odds not verified · 9.05% estimated impact if it hits
- Ukraine farmland war damagebullish pressure · event odds not verified · 10.03% estimated impact if it hits
- Russia-Ukraine ceasefirebearish pressure · event odds not verified · -13.86% estimated impact if it hits
- Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the linebearish pressure · event odds not verified · -7.88% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famineEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 9.05% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Ukraine farmland war damageEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 10.03% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Russian refinery drone waveEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 6.39% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Scenario/news pressure transmits through the asset mapMesh score +0.00; scenario score +0.63.
Why lower
- Russia-Ukraine ceasefireEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -13.86% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Trump-brokered ceasefire freezes the lineEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -7.88% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Ukraine ceasefire de-rates European defense stocks from recordsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -6.41% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move Volatility (VIX) — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Volatility (VIX) up
| RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine | Odds not verified | +9.1% | 0–6 months |
| Ukraine farmland war damage | Odds not verified | +10.0% | 0–6 months |
| Gaza war regional spillover | Odds not verified | +12.6% | 0–6 months |
| Lebanon ceasefire collapses, Beirut bombed | Odds not verified | +12.6% | 0–6 months |
+ 6,558 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Volatility (VIX) down
| Russia-Ukraine ceasefire | Odds not verified | −13.9% | 0–6 months |
| Red Sea reopens, freight and oil premia unwind | Odds not verified | −6.7% | 1–3 years |
| Junta-coastal détente reopens Sahel trade | Odds not verified | −6.8% | 1–3 years |
| Sahel ceasefire halts the jihadist advance | Odds not verified | −7.3% | 1–3 years |
+ 2,235 more down-scenarios in the library
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