The receipt · a call frozen on the record

The 10-year keeps backing up into a live September hike: 56%

OPEN — resolves 2026-09-08. The rule below was fixed before the outcome; this page is the receipt.

The claim: The 10-year Treasury yield closes the week higher (4.78% at issuance), extending the Warsh repricing — hike odds near two-thirds and payrolls landing Friday.
Published: week of 2026-09-01 · resolves: 2026-09-08

The resolution rule — fixed before the outcome

TRUE if the US 10-year Treasury yield's daily close on 2026-09-08 is higher than its 2026-09-01 daily close; FALSE if flat or lower. Settled on MacroGuru's daily price cache — the same series both dates.

frozen in the prediction chain — event #60 · hash 39fb4128c470 · the chain is public and verifiable; editing this call after the fact would snap it.

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Context

The full scenario & cascade → · This week's calls · The public scorecard · a 56% call fails 4 times in 10 — that's the deal.