What if Fed signals a higher neutral rate (r-star), repricing the long end?
Officials lift their estimate of the long-run neutral rate, implying less easing ahead; the long end sells off and real yields rise structurally, pressuring duration and rate-sensitive equities.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Officials lift their estimate of the long-run neutral rate, implying less easing ahead; the long end sells off and real yields rise structurally, pressuring duration and rate-sensitive equities. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — US dollar (DXY) ▲ · Yield-curve slope ▲ · Fed policy path ▲ · Real yields ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.79–-0.33% · other way +2.13% (n=12) |
| 2 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.92–-0.09% · other way +19.61% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.75–-0.28% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.18–+1.05% · other way +5.04% (n=10) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.52–+0.65% · other way -1.46% (n=12) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -1.27–+16.1% · other way +5.9% (n=12) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.65–+1.49% · other way +6.67% (n=10) |
| 9 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +7bp hist -3.0–+19.37% · other way +7.8% (n=12) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -2.97–+0.94% · other way +0.91% (n=10) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.81–+0.09% · other way +2.89% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.49–-0.07% · other way +3.07% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.45–+4.95% · other way +12.41% (n=8) |
| 14 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.05–+0.51% · other way -0.02% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.2% | 72% | 38 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.6% | 68% | 38 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 66% | 35 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +3bp | 67% | 40 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -5.9% | 70% | 23 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 67% | 34 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 63% | 35 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +5bp | 63% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +1.6% | 63% | 36 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 35 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.7% | 59% | 35 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 35 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +6.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 32 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 56% | 35 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |