The Fed stays on hold — no July hike
The Fed leaves rates at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. The hike risk is real later in 2026, not at this meeting.
Commodities
Gold
XAU—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:GOLD · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the strongest mapped scenarios for Gold, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Current outlook limited
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Missing data is a coverage gap, not a neutral market signal. Historical scenarios remain visible for research and search indexing.
Scenario map
1785 up vs 1771 down scenarios
Gold has 3,556 mapped macro scenarios. The library contains 1,785 upside and 1,771 downside channels—more upside channels. This is a scenario inventory, not a current directional forecast.
Scenario relationships are research context, not a current market call. Informational, not investment advice.
Current Decision Receipts for Gold
Read the event first. Each percentage below is the frozen probability of the named macro event—not the probability that Gold rises or falls, and not an expected return. The direction is only the receipt's conditional watchlist instruction if that event resolves true.
Core PCE cools to 3.3% or lower
June core PCE eases from May's 3.4% to 3.3% year over year or less. Inflation stays above target, but it does not reaccelerate.
The U.S. dodges a Q2 contraction
Advance Q2 real GDP prints above zero. Growth is slower, but the first estimate does not show a recession quarter.
The Bank of Japan pauses after June's hike
The BoJ leaves its policy rate at 1.0% on Friday. One month after a hike, it waits for more inflation and yen evidence.
Hormuz does not normalize in seven days
Shipping remains materially below pre-war traffic through July 31, and Brent records at least one daily close above $90.
Historical price record
Last recorded observation: 2026-08-13. Shown as historical context, not a current market price.
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Top scenarios that move Gold — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes Gold up
| Central-bank gold super-surge tops 1,300t/yr | Odds not verified | +2.7% | 1–3 years |
| RSF siege of el-Fasher triggers Darfur famine | Odds not verified | +1.4% | 0–6 months |
| Fiscal-dominance debasement trade drives gold above $3,500 | Odds not verified | +2.3% | 1–3 years |
| mBridge bypasses dollar rails | Odds not verified | +4.1% | 1–3 years |
+ 1,781 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes Gold down
| Real-rate reversal sparks gold ETF outflows and a sharp pullback | Odds not verified | −2.1% | 0–6 months |
| Brent spike to $110 sinks the rupee to record lows | Odds not verified | −2.3% | 0–6 months |
| DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain | Odds not verified | −2.1% | 0–6 months |
| Synchronized EM FX defense | Odds not verified | −3.4% | 0–6 months |
+ 1,767 more down-scenarios in the library
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