The Fed stays on hold — no July hike
The Fed leaves rates at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. The hike risk is real later in 2026, not at this meeting.
FX
US dollar (DXY)
DXY—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:DXY · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the strongest mapped scenarios for US dollar (DXY), from the 10,580-scenario library.
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Scenario map
1984 up vs 782 down scenarios
US dollar (DXY) has 2,766 mapped macro scenarios. The library contains 1,984 upside and 782 downside channels—more upside channels. This is a scenario inventory, not a current directional forecast.
Scenario relationships are research context, not a current market call. Informational, not investment advice.
Current Decision Receipts for US dollar (DXY)
Read the event first. Each percentage below is the frozen probability of the named macro event—not the probability that US dollar (DXY) rises or falls, and not an expected return. The direction is only the receipt's conditional watchlist instruction if that event resolves true.
The Bank of England holds at 3.75%
The MPC leaves Bank Rate unchanged on Thursday. Above-target inflation blocks a cut; softer labour data blocks a hike.
Core PCE cools to 3.3% or lower
June core PCE eases from May's 3.4% to 3.3% year over year or less. Inflation stays above target, but it does not reaccelerate.
The U.S. dodges a Q2 contraction
Advance Q2 real GDP prints above zero. Growth is slower, but the first estimate does not show a recession quarter.
The Bank of Japan pauses after June's hike
The BoJ leaves its policy rate at 1.0% on Friday. One month after a hike, it waits for more inflation and yen evidence.
Historical price record
Last recorded observation: 2026-08-13. Shown as historical context, not a current market price.
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Top scenarios that move US dollar (DXY) — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes US dollar (DXY) up
| DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain | Odds not verified | +1.7% | 0–6 months |
| Risk-off dollar spike on geopolitical shock | Odds not verified | +1.4% | 0–6 months |
| Risk-off dollar spike triggers broad EM-FX intervention | Odds not verified | +1.4% | 0–6 months |
| DXY jumps on an oil-shock dash-for-dollars | Odds not verified | +1.5% | 0–6 months |
+ 1,980 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes US dollar (DXY) down
| De-dollarization accelerates | Odds not verified | −1.8% | 3–10 years |
| Central-bank gold super-surge tops 1,300t/yr | Odds not verified | −0.9% | 1–3 years |
| Structural dollar-bear cycle sparks a broad EM-FX renaissance | Odds not verified | −1.4% | 1–3 years |
| mBridge bypasses dollar rails | Odds not verified | −1.6% | 1–3 years |
+ 778 more down-scenarios in the library
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