FX
US dollar (DXY)
DXY—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:DXY · provider market, not official cash close← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for US dollar (DXY), from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 44% · 1984 up vs 782 down scenarios
US dollar (DXY) leans higher near-term — high conviction. Of the 2,766 mapped scenarios that move US dollar (DXY), 1,984 push it up and 782 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing US dollar (DXY) higher is DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain (event odds not yet verified; ~1.7% estimated impact on US dollar (DXY) if it occurs). Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the up-lean: De-dollarization accelerates (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
US dollar (DXY) is a close call over the next 7 days: 52.2% chance of a higher close means the evidence is only slightly tilted, not high-conviction.
The forecast swing band is -0.3% to +1.1% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The upside side of the band is wider, so the read has a positive payoff skew even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 49.0% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior, the scenario graph, the news mesh after discounting weak headlines, macro, rates and policy. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drainbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.7% estimated impact if it hits
- Risk-off dollar spike on geopolitical shockbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 1.4% estimated impact if it hits
- BoC cuts far below Fedbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.55% estimated impact if it hits
- Fed losses past $350bnbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -1.24% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the display threshold in the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the display threshold in the latest pull.
5 weak or unverified headline(s) were discounted before this read was shown.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 49.0%, vol 0.95%, momentum z 0.66.
- DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drainEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.7% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Risk-off dollar spike on geopolitical shockEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.4% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Risk-off dollar spike triggers broad EM-FX interventionEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 1.4% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- BoC cuts far below FedEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.55% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Fed losses past $350bnEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -1.24% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Fed quietly expands balance sheetEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.48% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Current Decision Receipts for US dollar (DXY)
Read the event first. Each percentage below is the frozen probability of the named macro event—not the probability that US dollar (DXY) rises or falls, and not an expected return. The direction is only the receipt's conditional watchlist instruction if that event resolves true.
The Fed stays on hold — no July hike
The Fed leaves rates at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. The hike risk is real later in 2026, not at this meeting.
The Bank of England holds at 3.75%
The MPC leaves Bank Rate unchanged on Thursday. Above-target inflation blocks a cut; softer labour data blocks a hike.
Core PCE cools to 3.3% or lower
June core PCE eases from May's 3.4% to 3.3% year over year or less. Inflation stays above target, but it does not reaccelerate.
The U.S. dodges a Q2 contraction
Advance Q2 real GDP prints above zero. Growth is slower, but the first estimate does not show a recession quarter.
The Bank of Japan pauses after June's hike
The BoJ leaves its policy rate at 1.0% on Friday. One month after a hike, it waits for more inflation and yen evidence.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move US dollar (DXY) — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes US dollar (DXY) up
| DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain | Odds not verified | +1.7% | 0–6 months |
| Risk-off dollar spike on geopolitical shock | Odds not verified | +1.4% | 0–6 months |
| Risk-off dollar spike triggers broad EM-FX intervention | Odds not verified | +1.4% | 0–6 months |
| DXY jumps on an oil-shock dash-for-dollars | Odds not verified | +1.5% | 0–6 months |
+ 1,980 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes US dollar (DXY) down
| De-dollarization accelerates | Odds not verified | −1.8% | 3–10 years |
| Central-bank gold super-surge tops 1,300t/yr | Odds not verified | −0.9% | 1–3 years |
| Structural dollar-bear cycle sparks a broad EM-FX renaissance | Odds not verified | −1.4% | 1–3 years |
| mBridge bypasses dollar rails | Odds not verified | −1.6% | 1–3 years |
+ 778 more down-scenarios in the library
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