USD/JPY

USDJPY—Current priceloadingHyperliquid HIP-3 perpetual · xyz:JPY · provider market, not official cash close

← all asset outlooks · the strongest mapped scenarios for USD/JPY, from the 10,580-scenario library.

Current outlook limited

The latest forecast is outside its freshness window; the price history has not refreshed within three days. The scenario map remains available. MacroGuru is withholding a current probability and static price until the inputs refresh.

Missing data is a coverage gap, not a neutral market signal. Historical scenarios remain visible for research and search indexing.

Scenario map 910 up vs 935 down scenarios

USD/JPY has 1,845 mapped macro scenarios. The library contains 910 upside and 935 downside channels—more downside channels. This is a scenario inventory, not a current directional forecast.

Scenario relationships are research context, not a current market call. Informational, not investment advice.

Current Decision Receipts for USD/JPY

Read the event first. Each percentage below is the frozen probability of the named macro event—not the probability that USD/JPY rises or falls, and not an expected return. The direction is only the receipt's conditional watchlist instruction if that event resolves true.

96%event probabilityconditional upside watch for USDJPY if the event resolves true

The Bank of Japan pauses after June's hike

The BoJ leaves its policy rate at 1.0% on Friday. One month after a hike, it waits for more inflation and yen evidence.

Verify the canonical asset-to-receipt index →

Historical price record

Last recorded observation: 2026-08-13. Shown as historical context, not a current market price.

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Top scenarios that move USD/JPY — ranked by impact

▲ Pushes USD/JPY up

DXY melt-up triggers an EM sudden stop and reserve drain	Odds not verified	+0.8%	0–6 months
DXY jumps on an oil-shock dash-for-dollars	Odds not verified	+0.7%	0–6 months
Risk-off dollar spike on geopolitical shock	Odds not verified	+0.6%	0–6 months
Hidden $80tn FX-swap dollar debt can't roll, basis blows out	Odds not verified	+0.8%	0–6 months

+ 906 more up-scenarios in the library

▼ Pushes USD/JPY down

Central-bank gold super-surge tops 1,300t/yr	Odds not verified	−0.6%	1–3 years
mBridge bypasses dollar rails	Odds not verified	−1.0%	1–3 years
Saudi reprices oil off-dollar	Odds not verified	−1.0%	1–3 years
Global EM-carry unwind as a vol shock breaks the Sharpe	Odds not verified	−0.4%	0–6 months

+ 931 more down-scenarios in the library