Rates
10y Treasury yield
DGS104.7780%Latest recorded close · 2026-09-01← all asset outlooks · the current read + the strongest mapped scenarios for 10y Treasury yield, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Near-term: Leans HIGHER
conviction 32% · 2192 up vs 1002 down scenarios
10y Treasury yield leans higher near-term — a lean. Of the 3,194 mapped scenarios that move 10y Treasury yield, 2,192 push it up and 1,002 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing 10y Treasury yield higher is Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yields (event odds not yet verified; ~0.1% estimated impact on 10y Treasury yield if it occurs). This week our model already has 10y Treasury yield biased higher. Regime backdrop: The week the hike came back.
What flips the up-lean: Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing (event odds not yet verified).
Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise. Informational, not investment advice.
Near-term read — probability, range, evidence
10y Treasury yield slightly higher over the next 7 days: 56.2% chance of a higher close after combining history, scenarios and current evidence.
The forecast swing band is -2.3% to +2.9% over 7 days. This is the model's comparable-history zone, not a price target. The upside side of the band is wider, so the read has a positive payoff skew even when the headline probability is close to balanced.
The history anchor uses 1,008 comparable 7-day windows; the base rate was 55.1% higher before today’s factors were applied. Status: live tracking started; not enough resolved calls yet.
Today’s tilt came mainly from price behavior, the scenario graph. Each forecast is saved and later scored, so this number will earn calibration over time instead of pretending certainty today.
Scenario catalysts
- Treasury auction tail shockbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.06% estimated impact if it hits
- Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yieldsbullish pressure · event odds not verified · 0.1% estimated impact if it hits
- Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easingbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.05% estimated impact if it hits
- Saudi riyal peg scare returnsbearish pressure · event odds not verified · -0.13% estimated impact if it hits
Trusted news check
Bull evidence
- No trusted bullish evidence cleared the latest pull.
Bear evidence
- No trusted bearish evidence cleared the latest pull.
The why behind the odds
Why higher
- 1008 rolling 7d return windowsBase higher rate 55.1%, vol 3.23%, momentum z 0.49.
- Treasury auction tail shockEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.06% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yieldsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.1% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Oil-shock $130 Brent with gold FALLINGEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; 0.15% mapped move if the event occurs.
Why lower
- Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easingEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.05% mapped move if the event occurs.
- Saudi riyal peg scare returnsEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.13% mapped move if the event occurs.
- SBV burns reserves defending dong past 26,500 floorEvent odds not verified; ranked with a legacy library prior; -0.05% mapped move if the event occurs.
Bull and bear evidence both cleared thresholds; forecast is netted, not one-sided.
Sources behind this read: MacroGuru chart history · Scenario library · asset mesh + scenario graph · predictions.json / macro regime layer
Current Decision Receipts for 10y Treasury yield
Read the event first. Each percentage below is the frozen probability of the named macro event—not the probability that 10y Treasury yield rises or falls, and not an expected return. The direction is only the receipt's conditional watchlist instruction if that event resolves true.
The Fed stays on hold — no July hike
The Fed leaves rates at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. The hike risk is real later in 2026, not at this meeting.
The Bank of England holds at 3.75%
The MPC leaves Bank Rate unchanged on Thursday. Above-target inflation blocks a cut; softer labour data blocks a hike.
Core PCE cools to 3.3% or lower
June core PCE eases from May's 3.4% to 3.3% year over year or less. Inflation stays above target, but it does not reaccelerate.
The U.S. dodges a Q2 contraction
Advance Q2 real GDP prints above zero. Growth is slower, but the first estimate does not show a recession quarter.
Price & the moves that mattered
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Top scenarios that move 10y Treasury yield — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes 10y Treasury yield up
| Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yields | Odds not verified | +0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Treasury auction tail shock | Odds not verified | +0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Oil-shock $130 Brent with gold FALLING | Odds not verified | +0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Oil-shock stagflation forces a Fed hawkish hold | Odds not verified | +0.1% | 0–6 months |
+ 2,188 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes 10y Treasury yield down
| Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing | Odds not verified | −0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Saudi riyal peg scare returns | Odds not verified | −0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Credible bipartisan US deficit deal pulls the term premium lower | Odds not verified | −0.1% | 1–3 years |
| Strong US 30y auction with record indirect bid calms duration fear | Odds not verified | −0.1% | 0–6 months |
+ 998 more down-scenarios in the library
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