Rates

10y Treasury yield

DGS104.46%

← all asset outlooks · the near-term read + every scenario that moves 10y Treasury yield, from the 10,580-scenario library.

Near-term: Leans HIGHER conviction 32% · 2192 up vs 1002 down scenarios

10y Treasury yield leans higher near-term — a lean. Of the 3,194 mapped scenarios that move 10y Treasury yield, 2,192 push it up and 1,002 push it down, and weighting each by its probability, size and how soon it bites, the book skews higher. The lead driver pushing 10y Treasury yield higher is Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yields (26% likely, ~0.1% on 10y Treasury yield). This week our model already has 10y Treasury yield biased higher. Regime backdrop: Hawkish Fed (3.50–3.75%, dot-plot leans to a HIKE), firm dollar, active US–Iran/Hormuz conflict, AI-led equity pullback.

What flips the up-lean: Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing (40% likely).

Probabilistic, scenario-weighted read from the library + the current regime — informational, not investment advice. A lean is a tilt in the odds, not a promise.

Price & the moves that mattered

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Every scenario that moves 10y Treasury yield — ranked by impact

▲ Pushes 10y Treasury yield up

Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yields	26%	+0.1%	0–6 months
Treasury auction tail shock	39%	+0.1%	0–6 months
Oil-shock $130 Brent with gold FALLING	13%	+0.1%	0–6 months
Oil-shock stagflation forces a Fed hawkish hold	12%	+0.1%	0–6 months

+ 2,188 more up-scenarios in the library

▼ Pushes 10y Treasury yield down

Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing	40%	−0.1%	0–6 months
Saudi riyal peg scare returns	16%	−0.1%	0–6 months
Credible bipartisan US deficit deal pulls the term premium lower	50%	−0.1%	1–3 years
Strong US 30y auction with record indirect bid calms duration fear	28%	−0.1%	0–6 months

+ 998 more down-scenarios in the library