The Fed stays on hold — no July hike
The Fed leaves rates at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday. The hike risk is real later in 2026, not at this meeting.
Rates
10y Treasury yield
DGS10← all asset outlooks · the strongest mapped scenarios for 10y Treasury yield, from the 10,580-scenario library.
Current outlook limited
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Missing data is a coverage gap, not a neutral market signal. Historical scenarios remain visible for research and search indexing.
Scenario map
2192 up vs 1002 down scenarios
10y Treasury yield has 3,194 mapped macro scenarios. The library contains 2,192 upside and 1,002 downside channels—more upside channels. This is a scenario inventory, not a current directional forecast.
Scenario relationships are research context, not a current market call. Informational, not investment advice.
Current Decision Receipts for 10y Treasury yield
Read the event first. Each percentage below is the frozen probability of the named macro event—not the probability that 10y Treasury yield rises or falls, and not an expected return. The direction is only the receipt's conditional watchlist instruction if that event resolves true.
The Bank of England holds at 3.75%
The MPC leaves Bank Rate unchanged on Thursday. Above-target inflation blocks a cut; softer labour data blocks a hike.
Core PCE cools to 3.3% or lower
June core PCE eases from May's 3.4% to 3.3% year over year or less. Inflation stays above target, but it does not reaccelerate.
The U.S. dodges a Q2 contraction
Advance Q2 real GDP prints above zero. Growth is slower, but the first estimate does not show a recession quarter.
Historical price record
Last recorded observation: 2026-08-12. Shown as historical context, not a current market price.
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Top scenarios that move 10y Treasury yield — ranked by impact
▲ Pushes 10y Treasury yield up
| Energy-led CPI overshoot lifts breakevens and real yields | Odds not verified | +0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Treasury auction tail shock | Odds not verified | +0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Oil-shock $130 Brent with gold FALLING | Odds not verified | +0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Oil-shock stagflation forces a Fed hawkish hold | Odds not verified | +0.1% | 0–6 months |
+ 2,188 more up-scenarios in the library
▼ Pushes 10y Treasury yield down
| Dovish dot-plot surprise: the Fed pencils in deeper 2026 easing | Odds not verified | −0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Saudi riyal peg scare returns | Odds not verified | −0.1% | 0–6 months |
| Credible bipartisan US deficit deal pulls the term premium lower | Odds not verified | −0.1% | 1–3 years |
| Strong US 30y auction with record indirect bid calms duration fear | Odds not verified | −0.1% | 0–6 months |
+ 998 more down-scenarios in the library
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