What if the PLA seizes territory in Arunachal Pradesh?
A PLA grab in Arunachal plus Quad mobilization sells global high-beta and bids vol and defense primes — the textbook deleveraging chain. Closest analogue is the 2017 Doklam standoff: tense, headline-driven Asian-equity wobble that resolved without sustained drawdown. Transmission: China-India trade is deeply asymmetric (India runs a large deficit), so escalation hits Indian electronics/pharma inputs hardest; the novel angle is Quad supply-chain decoupling accelerating, a tailwind for ex-China manufacturing plays.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. PLA seizes territory in Arunachal Pradesh, opening a Himalayan front and Quad mobilization. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.