What if a central bank's yield-curve-control peg breaks?
A YCC peg snap forces a violent repricing of the controlled long end higher, real yields jump and global duration-sensitive equities and gold sell on the discount-rate shock. The direct analogue is the BOJ's 2022-23 staged YCC widening that whipsawed JGBs and the yen; the RBA's Nov-2021 0.1% target abandonment is the cleaner 'peg actually breaks' case. Trade payers on the relevant curve and short the currency into the credibility loss, not equities.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A central bank's yield-curve-control peg fails under selling pressure, inflicting huge losses and shredding policy credibility instantly. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fed policy path ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Real yields ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -4.39–+0.18% · other way +19.6% (n=12) |
| 2 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.23–-0.51% · other way +2.27% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.51–-0.39% · other way +1.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.6% hist -7.35–+5.26% · other way +6.12% (n=9) |
| 5 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% hist -7.61–+3.38% · other way +1.4% (n=9) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.4–+1.09% · other way +8.3% (n=9) |
| 7 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.79–-0.41% · other way -1.14% (n=12) |
| 8 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +12bp hist -1.14–+8.39% · other way +4.6% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +11bp hist -1.87–+8.72% · other way +5.3% (n=12) |
| 11 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -4.3–+6.81% · other way +15.92% (n=7) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.35–+0.12% · other way +1.85% (n=12) |
| 13 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.72–+0.43% · other way +3.03% (n=12) |
| 14 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.53–+4.55% · other way -4.46% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's SHORT on MSTR/NVDA: the +63%/+53% analogues are 2023-25 crypto-and-AI bull regime; the one true-stress analogue (Lehman 2008) printed -37%/-33%, confirming a YCC-break wrecks them — history is regime-biased.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 31 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.4% · 5d +7.7% | 86% | 7 | 0.49 | ⚠ differs |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 73% | 26 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -3.6% | 74% | 27 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -4.7% | 70% | 10 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.7% | 67% | 27 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 24 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -4.5% | 62% | 8 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 26 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.5% | 58% | 31 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 26 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.6% | 58% | 31 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.6% | 58% | 26 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 27 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -5bp | 55% | 31 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Active YCC pegs nearly gone post-BoJ exit; peg-break is rare structural tail event. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.