What if the US slapped a blanket 60% tariff on Chinese imports?
Blanket 60% China tariffs are a broad risk-off margin shock: tech supply chains are the most exposed, so the Nasdaq and semis lead, Alibaba and the yuan absorb the China-side hit, and the move is index-wide rather than a single channel. The live template is the Apr-2025 'Liberation Day' tariff cascade and the 2018-19 tranche war, both of which gapped semis and pressured CNY toward/through 7. Transmission: China retaliates via rare-earths and CNY depreciation to offset tariffs, exporting disinflation — so the second leg is FX, not just equity beta.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The US imposes blanket 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.