What if the world splits into rival US and China tech blocs?
A US/China tech-and-payment bloc split is a supply-chain-and-tariff shock, so the cleanest trade is short the chip complex (TSMC, Nvidia, ASML) and Alibaba with the yuan weaker, while bitcoin catches a small neutral-rail bid. Direct rhyme is the Apr 2025 US-China tariff peak (both sides >100%) that hammered semis and China ADRs. Forward angle: bifurcation forces duplicate capex and inventory across both blocs — margin-dilutive for the whole semi chain, and TSMC sits on the fault line as the single most exposed name.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. The world bifurcates into US-led and China-led tech and payment blocs. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.68–-0.58% · other way +1.64% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.12–-0.5% · other way +4.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.3–-0.66% · other way +1.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.51–-0.32% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 5 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.84–+0.95% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.98–-0.17% · other way -2.72% (n=12) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.03–+1.16% · other way +5.76% (n=12) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -4.49–+0.59% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.82–-0.22% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.97–-0.36% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 11 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.35–-0.09% · other way -0.79% (n=12) |
| 12 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.04–+0.88% · other way -3.2% (n=12) |
| 13 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.7–-0.11% · other way +-0.0% (n=12) |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.04–+0.95% · other way +8.12% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade LONG on COIN: history's -1% averages a chaotic off-channel mix of 2022-24 single-stock crashes (Netflix, ASML) with nothing to do with a tech-bloc splinternet; noisy, off-channel, base rate unreliable.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -1.5% | 73% | 35 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 71% | 35 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 32 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -3.0% | 68% | 36 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -3.2% | 64% | 36 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.8% | 67% | 35 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 38 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.3% | 66% | 36 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.6% | 62% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.8% | 62% | 35 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 35 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.5% | 62% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -3.0% | 60% | 35 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 38 | 0.14 | · |
Why this probability
Tech/payment bifurcation already advancing via tariffs and export controls; decade-long trend. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.