What if India strikes China's mega-dam on the Brahmaputra?
An Indian strike on a Chinese Yarlung-Tsangpo mega-dam is a kinetic escalation, not a harvest shock — the trade is risk-off equity/semis selling and a vol spike, with downstream water risk to Bangladesh/Assam a slow-burn second order. Rhymes with the 2019 Balakot strike: sharp one-day risk wobble that markets discounted once it stayed limited. The roots wrongly route this through a climate/agri channel; it is a defense-and-geopolitical conflict shock.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. India strikes a Chinese mega-dam upstream, escalating a water-and-border conflict. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.