What if a China-driven iron ore slump cuts Brazil's export receipts and pressures the BRL?
A sustained China-driven iron-ore slump cuts Brazil's export receipts and Vale's free cash flow, a BCB adverse-path commodity shock that widens the current-account gap and pressures the BRL.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A sustained China-driven iron-ore slump cuts Brazil's export receipts and Vale's free cash flow, a BCB adverse-path commodity shock that widens the current-account gap and pressures the BRL. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.97–+1.04% · other way +9.52% (n=10) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.18–+0.52% · other way +0.72% (n=10) |
| 3 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.06–+0.09% · other way +0.01% (n=9) |
| 4 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.53–-0.06% · other way +0.22% (n=9) |
| 5 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.44–-0.07% · other way -0.09% (n=9) |
| 6 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.24–+0.28% · other way -0.37% (n=4) |
| 7 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.62–+0.67% · other way -5.48% (n=4) |
| 8 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.43–+0.01% · other way +0.26% (n=9) |
| 9 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.5–+0.05% · other way +1.76% (n=8) |
| 10 | Platinum XPTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.4–+0.48% · other way +4.73% (n=10) |
| 11 | Palladium XPDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.36–+0.79% · other way +2.23% (n=10) |
| 12 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.71–+0.14% · other way -1.89% (n=10) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.39–+2.58% · other way +19.86% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.9% | 67% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.5% | 68% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -2.5% | 63% | 39 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.8% | 63% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -3.2% | 59% | 29 | 0.15 | · |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.3% | 58% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.5% | 54% | 32 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 53% | 39 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.1% | 53% | 39 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 51% | 39 | 0.01 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.1% · 5d +0.1% | 51% | 39 | 0.01 | · |