What if a Chinese slowdown slashes soybean and grain imports?
A consumption-led China slowdown cuts soybean and grain imports, pressuring global agricultural prices and the revenue of US and Brazilian farm exporters.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A consumption-led China slowdown cuts soybean and grain imports, pressuring global agricultural prices and the revenue of US and Brazilian farm exporters. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▼ · Wheat ▼ · China growth ▼ · Food inflation ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.87–+1.25% · other way +2.69% (n=11) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.8–+0.08% · other way +2.18% (n=11) |
| 3 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.12–+0.23% · other way -2.73% (n=10) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.64–+0.82% · other way -0.35% (n=10) |
| 5 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.42–+0.03% · other way -0.57% (n=11) |
| 6 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.28–+0.44% · other way -0.57% (n=11) |
| 7 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.92–+0.28% · other way -2.46% (n=11) |
| 8 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.29–+0.03% · other way -0.2% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.4% | 63% | 36 | 0.20 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -4.4% | 63% | 36 | 0.19 | · |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -1.1% | 61% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.0% | 59% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.4% | 59% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.7% | 57% | 38 | 0.13 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.1% | 57% | 38 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 36 | 0.10 | · |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.2% | 55% | 36 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 53% | 36 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 45% | 36 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d -5bp | 50% | 40 | 0.00 | · |