What if Canada's boreal megafires smoke out North America for weeks?
Boreal smoke-out is an air-quality/logistics hit: grounded flights, halted outdoor work, weaker discretionary/airline footfall — not a grain shock. The cleanest read is jet-fuel demand and airline load factors near affected hubs, plus short-lived insured-loss noise. Rhymes with June 2023, when Canadian wildfire smoke shut NYC-area flights for days with minimal lasting market impact. The wheat/corn cascade misroutes a transient mobility event into crops; effect fades in weeks.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A record boreal fire season blankets North American cities in smoke for weeks, halting flights and outdoor industry. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Jet fuel ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.