What if a global capex downturn hits Japan's capital-goods and automation exporters?
A global capital-expenditure downturn hits Japan's capital-goods and automation exporters, denting earnings and lifting credit costs across the machinery supply chain that regional and megabanks finance.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A global capital-expenditure downturn hits Japan's capital-goods and automation exporters, denting earnings and lifting credit costs across the machinery supply chain that regional and megabanks finance. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Global growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.23–+1.27% · other way +27.34% (n=11) |
| 2 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.4–-0.14% · other way -0.33% (n=11) |
| 3 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.46–+0.19% · other way -0.05% (n=11) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.36–+0.2% · other way +0.06% (n=11) |
| 5 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.36–+6.64% · other way -6.09% (n=11) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.95–+2.1% · other way -3.19% (n=9) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.38–+0.55% · other way +6.08% (n=9) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.24–-0.12% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.4–+0.0% · other way -1.07% (n=12) |
| 11 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.24–+0.29% · other way +1.69% (n=11) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -3.93–+2.76% · other way +4.1% (n=9) |
| 13 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.04–+0.65% · other way +0.73% (n=11) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -6.24–+5.53% · other way +26.15% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -2.1% | 72% | 39 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -7.4% | 75% | 8 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.1% | 67% | 33 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 33 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.7% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 64% | 33 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.1% | 61% | 33 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -2.7% | 62% | 8 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.0% | 58% | 12 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -1.5% | 58% | 33 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -11bp · 5d -5bp | 57% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.0% · 5d +1.0% | 57% | 35 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 37 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -3.6% | 58% | 33 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.5% | 55% | 33 | 0.09 | · |