What if BOJ scraps yield-curve control without a JGB market dislocation?
The BOJ formally ends YCC and lets long JGB yields find a market-clearing level smoothly, validating the orderly-exit thesis and supporting global risk by avoiding a duration shock.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. The BOJ formally ends YCC and lets long JGB yields find a market-clearing level smoothly, validating the orderly-exit thesis and supporting global risk by avoiding a duration shock. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▼ · FX carry appetite ▼ · Fed policy path ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.35–+0.84% · other way +5.45% (n=12) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.3–+6.17% · other way +18.0% (n=2) |
| 3 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 4 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -5.35–+2.97% · other way -10.44% (n=5) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -6.34–+2.05% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.05–+0.37% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.2–+1.61% · other way -7.76% (n=9) |
| 8 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.67–+0.61% · other way -0.07% (n=12) |
| 9 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.02–+0.09% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 10 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.31–+0.26% · other way +0.98% (n=12) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.63–+1.33% · other way -0.9% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.22–+0.65% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 13 | 2y Treasury yield DGS2 | Rate | ▲ +1bp model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -0.94–+3.57% · other way -1.4% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 69% | 26 | 0.27 | · |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 27 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -3.2% | 63% | 29 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 28 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -5.3% | 61% | 16 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.6% | 55% | 28 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +5bp · 5d +3bp | 54% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.6% | 52% | 40 | 0.05 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.0% | 53% | 37 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -3.4% | 52% | 20 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +1bp | 51% | 40 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.2% · 5d -5.7% ↺ fades | 41% | 13 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 49% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 49% | 40 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |