What if BoJ executes a smooth normalization; JGB yields rise orderly?
The Bank of Japan lifts rates and tapers gradually with clear guidance, letting JGB yields and the yen adjust without disruption; carry stays orderly and Japanese equities digest the shift well.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. The Bank of Japan lifts rates and tapers gradually with clear guidance, letting JGB yields and the yen adjust without disruption; carry stays orderly and Japanese equities digest the shift well. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▲ · Yield-curve slope ▲ · Financial conditions ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.72–+0.82% · other way +24.08% (n=7) |
| 2 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 3 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -7.51–+2.34% · other way +5.0% (n=8) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -7.99–+2.38% · other way +8.76% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.07–+0.53% · other way +1.56% (n=11) |
| 6 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.74–+0.22% · other way -4.71% (n=11) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.16–+0.91% · other way +5.29% (n=8) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.26–+0.81% · other way +1.2% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -9.2% | 74% | 20 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -7.2% · 5d -4.2% | 65% | 32 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.9% · 5d -6.7% | 65% | 22 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 62% | 30 | 0.18 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.2% | 59% | 26 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 53% | 31 | 0.05 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -6bp · 5d -1bp | 52% | 39 | 0.03 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 49% | 39 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -3.0% | 48% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 49% | 31 | 0.00 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.4% | 45% | 39 | 0.00 | · |