What if cartels openly capture a northern Mexican state?
Cartels seizing a northern Mexican state is fundamentally a USMCA-trade and MXN shock, yet the cascade is dominated by semis/Nvidia/TSMC -- that is mis-weighted; the cleaner move is peso weakness and auto/manufacturing supply chains, not Taiwan chips. Rhymes with 2019 tariff-threat MXN selloffs and cartel-driven risk premia. Transmission: Mexico is the US's top trade partner with deep auto/electronics nearshoring; ports and border crossings are the choke. Forward: nearshoring makes this a supply-chain and MXN trade, not a Nasdaq beta event.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Cartels openly capture a northern Mexican state government, controlling ports, refineries and border crossings outright. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.9% hist +0.82–+7.55% · other way +3.23% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.7% hist -2.86–-1.48% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.3% hist -2.11–-1.05% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.3% hist -1.94–-0.83% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.92–-0.52% · other way +4.75% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -3.13–-0.12% · other way +2.51% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.43–-0.64% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.7–+0.9% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -3.61–+0.32% · other way +2.73% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.34–-0.23% · other way +1.61% (n=12) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.53–+2.86% · other way +26.92% (n=12) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -3.01–+0.19% · other way -1.68% (n=12) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.48–+0.94% · other way +0.89% (n=12) |
| 14 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.52–-0.36% · other way +0.57% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short MSTR/AVGO/SPX; every up analogue is a 2025 tariff-shock-then-truce rebound (V-recovery off Liberation Day), a regime artifact, not a read on cartels seizing a Mexican state.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 35 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +17.9% · 5d +6.5% | 88% | 7 | 0.63 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 80% | 19 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.1% · 5d -8.1% | 71% | 14 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 67% | 20 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -11.7% ↺ fades | 75% | 7 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 20 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -3.5% | 65% | 20 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.5% | 63% | 28 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -0.3% | 63% | 19 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 19 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 19 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 18 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 19 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 19 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Cartel violence high but open seizure of a state government is unprecedented escalation A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.