What if Cat-5 landfall idles Gulf-coast LNG and refining for weeks?
A Category-5 hurricane idles Sabine Pass, Calcasieu and nearby refineries for weeks, cutting LNG exports and gasoline/diesel output at once; cracks widen while domestic gas backs up.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A Category-5 hurricane idles Sabine Pass, Calcasieu and nearby refineries for weeks, cutting LNG exports and gasoline/diesel output at once; cracks widen while domestic gas backs up. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · Diesel ▲ · European energy ▲ · Gasoline ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.