What if China air-sea quarantine cuts Taiwan's fuel imports?
A declared customs-inspection regime throttles oil and LNG inflows to import-dependent Taiwan; energy-rationing fear spikes JKM and diesel, TWD and SMH fall sharply, VIX rises.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A declared customs-inspection regime throttles oil and LNG inflows to import-dependent Taiwan; energy-rationing fear spikes JKM and diesel, TWD and SMH fall sharply, VIX rises. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▲ · European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +9.9% hist +1.8–+7.07% · other way -9.73% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.2% hist -2.42–-1.07% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.8% hist -1.5–-0.66% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.5% hist -1.7–-0.8% · other way -0.81% (n=12) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -2.92–-0.14% · other way -1.13% (n=12) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.3% hist -2.55–-0.32% · other way +1.57% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -2.14–-0.32% · other way +2.19% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -2.79–+2.73% · other way +18.62% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.9% hist -2.83–+0.14% · other way -6.5% (n=11) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -3.17–+0.41% · other way -4.28% (n=12) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -2.86–+0.08% · other way -3.44% (n=12) |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.05–-0.39% · other way -0.54% (n=11) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.28–-0.07% · other way +0.15% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.12–-0.44% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.2% | 69% | 31 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +3.0% | 68% | 32 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.9% | 69% | 34 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.2% | 69% | 31 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -3.3% | 68% | 30 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.8% | 66% | 31 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -3.7% | 66% | 31 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.0% | 65% | 34 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -1.3% | 61% | 34 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +2.8% · 5d +0.3% | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -2.6% | 63% | 31 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -3.0% | 63% | 31 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.1% | 64% | 33 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 31 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |