What if China export-flood sparks Western tariff wall?
A surge of subsidized Chinese EV, solar and steel exports triggers defensive tariffs across the US and EU, raising trade tension and goods-disinflation cross-currents.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A surge of subsidized Chinese EV, solar and steel exports triggers defensive tariffs across the US and EU, raising trade tension and goods-disinflation cross-currents. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.0% hist -2.07–-0.25% · other way -0.59% (n=10) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.62–-0.32% · other way +2.62% (n=10) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -3.66–+0.17% · other way -1.25% (n=10) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.93–-0.17% · other way +8.7% (n=10) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.96–-0.39% · other way -0.16% (n=10) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.05–+1.0% · other way +4.58% (n=10) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.87–+0.08% · other way +2.03% (n=10) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -5.49–+1.36% · other way +6.4% (n=10) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.6–+0.54% · other way +0.4% (n=10) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -1.51–+0.02% · other way +2.18% (n=10) |
| 11 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -2.58–+0.38% · other way +0.51% (n=9) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.86–-0.07% · other way -0.08% (n=10) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -14.58–+7.48% · other way -7.66% (n=9) |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.53–+0.21% · other way -0.81% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 29 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.4% | 74% | 24 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -9.5% | 70% | 19 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -3.0% | 66% | 28 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.0% | 65% | 26 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -14.2% · 5d -19.8% | 67% | 13 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -2.6% | 65% | 26 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -3.8% | 62% | 24 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 60% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.6% | 62% | 24 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -3.5% | 60% | 28 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 28 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 24 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 24 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -2.2% | 57% | 26 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |