What if China restricts rare-earth and gallium exports critical to chip manufacturing?
China restricts gallium, germanium and rare-earth exports critical to chip and AI-hardware manufacturing, raising costs and constraining the build-out.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. China restricts gallium, germanium and rare-earth exports critical to chip and AI-hardware manufacturing, raising costs and constraining the build-out. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.9% hist -3.7–-0.09% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.83–-0.67% · other way +7.28% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.84–-0.75% · other way +1.05% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.41–-0.53% · other way +0.53% (n=12) |
| 5 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -4.14–+0.77% · other way -3.44% (n=12) |
| 6 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.39–+0.12% · other way -1.73% (n=12) |
| 7 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.43–+0.31% · other way +1.15% (n=12) |
| 8 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -3.48–+0.47% · other way -6.54% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.11–-0.12% · other way +0.08% (n=12) |
| 10 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.01–-0.5% · other way +0.9% (n=12) |
| 11 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.78–-0.28% · other way -2.76% (n=11) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -7.28–+2.37% · other way -8.24% (n=10) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.73–-0.43% · other way +18.79% (n=12) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -3.7–+0.7% · other way -3.18% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 32 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.2% · 5d -4.6% | 74% | 17 | 0.39 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -6.0% · 5d -2.6% | 70% | 26 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.3% | 70% | 23 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -0.3% | 69% | 14 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.3% · 5d -4.7% | 71% | 15 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -1.8% | 68% | 20 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.4% | 67% | 21 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 66% | 23 | 0.28 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 23 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.8% · 5d +0.8% | 63% | 24 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.5% | 62% | 23 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 60% | 31 | 0.20 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.5% | 63% | 25 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.5% | 62% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |