What if China weaponizes rare-earth export licensing?
China slow-walks rare-earth and magnet export licenses as leverage, creating intermittent shortages that whipsaw MP/Lynas and lift heavy-REE prices without a full ban.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. China slow-walks rare-earth and magnet export licenses as leverage, creating intermittent shortages that whipsaw MP/Lynas and lift heavy-REE prices without a full ban. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.34–-0.71% · other way +1.81% (n=11) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.27–-0.7% · other way +2.75% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.82–+0.74% · other way +10.49% (n=11) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.13–-0.28% · other way +2.57% (n=11) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.81–+0.78% · other way +4.87% (n=11) |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.15–+0.56% · other way -5.17% (n=8) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.48–+0.91% · other way +7.06% (n=11) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.64–+0.99% · other way +2.05% (n=9) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.7–+1.5% · other way +7.93% (n=11) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.92–-0.15% · other way +12.35% (n=11) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.47–+1.57% · other way +2.4% (n=11) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -3.43–+2.68% · other way -8.23% (n=8) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.21–-0.01% · other way +17.3% (n=11) |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.58–-0.19% · other way -0.17% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 23 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -7.1% · 5d -2.9% | 89% | 17 | 0.73 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 79% | 14 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 72% | 14 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -4.5% | 71% | 8 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 66% | 14 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +9.2% · 5d +0.6% | 68% | 15 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 66% | 14 | 0.28 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.8% | 68% | 12 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -3.2% | 66% | 14 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 22 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -9.1% · 5d -1.2% | 62% | 6 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.4% | 61% | 11 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -5bp · 5d +0bp | 58% | 22 | 0.15 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -5.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 7 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |