What if Critical-minerals club sets allied price floors?
Major consumers form a buyers' club with guaranteed floor prices for rare earths, lithium and cobalt, de-risking allied supply and blunting China's pricing power.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Major consumers form a buyers' club with guaranteed floor prices for rare earths, lithium and cobalt, de-risking allied supply and blunting China's pricing power. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.4–+0.85% · other way -1.3% (n=8) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.27–+1.14% · other way +0.29% (n=7) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.13–+0.66% · other way -0.56% (n=7) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% hist -2.61–+2.81% · other way -4.76% (n=3) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.11–+0.56% · other way -0.46% (n=7) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.88–+0.91% · other way -1.49% (n=7) |
| 8 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -3.45–+4.9% · other way -6.6% (n=7) |
| 9 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.45–+0.64% · other way +1.72% (n=12) |
| 10 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.27–+1.81% · other way -3.11% (n=7) |
| 11 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.96–+1.67% · other way -6.04% (n=6) |
| 12 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist +0.24–+0.43% · other way -1.34% (n=7) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -15.17–+18.24% · other way +7.77% (n=7) |
| 14 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.7–+1.26% · other way -1.99% (n=7) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 11 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +7.4% · 5d +0.8% | 78% | 8 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -6.4% · 5d -6.3% | 82% | 10 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -1.7% | 78% | 8 | 0.40 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +3.2% | 78% | 8 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -5.6% | 67% | 8 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -2.9% | 67% | 8 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +12.6% · 5d -3.1% ↺ fades | 64% | 6 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | LONG | +1.7% · 5d +2.0% | 64% | 10 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +4.4% · 5d -4.9% ↺ fades | 64% | 6 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +4.9% · 5d +0.9% | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.6% | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 8 | 0.19 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -11.4% | 64% | 6 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |