What if Cross-border audit deal keeps Chinese listings in US?
A durable audit-access agreement keeps major Chinese firms listed in New York, preserving capital-market links and easing the financial-decoupling overhang.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A durable audit-access agreement keeps major Chinese firms listed in New York, preserving capital-market links and easing the financial-decoupling overhang. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.29–+0.72% · other way -0.72% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.31–+0.63% · other way -0.75% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.42–+0.37% · other way -0.2% (n=12) |
| 4 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.3–+1.58% · other way -0.48% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.09–+1.23% · other way -2.19% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.21–+0.65% · other way +0.24% (n=12) |
| 7 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.6% hist -6.09–+1.92% · other way -15.92% (n=11) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.05–+1.48% · other way -2.82% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.41–+1.64% · other way +2.0% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.32–+0.55% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.64–+0.66% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -4.21–+11.21% · other way +2.82% (n=12) |
| 13 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.5% model prior · unmeasured |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.92–+1.13% · other way -1.89% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +2bp | 73% | 40 | 0.38 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 40 | 0.36 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.0% | 73% | 40 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.7% | 68% | 40 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.2% | 68% | 40 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d +0.5% | 63% | 40 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -5.7% · 5d -8.8% | 66% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.9% | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -1.5% | 63% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.0% | 63% | 40 | 0.19 | · |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.8% | 61% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +10.3% · 5d +0.5% | 56% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |