What if Cross-strait integration pact slashes the invasion risk premium?
A formal cross-strait economic-cooperation framework deepens trade and capital ties, sharply lowering the market-implied odds of conflict; Taiwan assets and SMH rerate, regional defense and gold premia drain.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A formal cross-strait economic-cooperation framework deepens trade and capital ties, sharply lowering the market-implied odds of conflict; Taiwan assets and SMH rerate, regional defense and gold premia drain. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Defense spending ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -7.3% hist -5.08–+0.26% · other way +4.43% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +3.1% hist +0.99–+1.77% · other way +0.11% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.1% hist +0.63–+1.58% · other way -0.54% (n=10) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist +0.6–+1.32% · other way -0.06% (n=10) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist +0.19–+1.87% · other way +0.46% (n=10) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist +0.02–+2.25% · other way -4.09% (n=10) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.6% hist +0.11–+1.95% · other way -2.35% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist -4.05–+10.19% · other way +6.41% (n=10) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.4% hist -10.17–+2.15% · other way -13.55% (n=7) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -1.31–+1.11% · other way -1.8% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.25–+0.8% · other way +3.78% (n=12) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.63–+6.07% · other way +2.5% (n=10) |
| 14 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist +0.02–+0.76% · other way -1.8% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +4.7% · 5d +0.4% | 72% | 31 | 0.42 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.2% | 72% | 37 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.9% · 5d -6.9% | 74% | 27 | 0.31 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.5% | 67% | 31 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.8% | 66% | 39 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +5bp | 65% | 39 | 0.23 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.9% | 63% | 39 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 61% | 35 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.9% | 64% | 33 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.4% | 61% | 39 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.0% · 5d +3.2% | 61% | 26 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.6% | 63% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 34 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |