What if Diesel-gasoline spread inverts as freight booms, travel softens?
A freight-and-industrial rebound against softer driving demand inverts the product slate so diesel cracks far outpace gasoline, lifting distillate-heavy refiners and pressuring gasoline-weighted ones.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A freight-and-industrial rebound against softer driving demand inverts the product slate so diesel cracks far outpace gasoline, lifting distillate-heavy refiners and pressuring gasoline-weighted ones. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▲ · Gasoline ▼ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.79–+2.01% · other way -0.17% (n=12) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.51–+1.21% · other way -3.69% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 28 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -3.4% | 65% | 22 | 0.22 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.5% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 28 | 0.18 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.0% | 62% | 19 | 0.17 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.9% | 57% | 21 | 0.13 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +6bp | 56% | 28 | 0.11 | · |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +1.8% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 48% | 21 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 48% | 21 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +4.9% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 46% | 13 | 0.00 | · |