What if mineral-rich blocs use lithium and rare earths as coercive leverage?
Control over transition-critical minerals becomes a coercive lever, with producer blocs leveraging lithium, cobalt and rare-earth dominance to extract concessions.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Control over transition-critical minerals becomes a coercive lever, with producer blocs leveraging lithium, cobalt and rare-earth dominance to extract concessions. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.4% hist +1.32–+5.65% · other way -7.75% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.7% hist -2.43–-1.31% · other way +1.89% (n=11) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -2.17–-0.6% · other way +2.53% (n=11) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.54–-0.89% · other way +2.37% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.78–-0.01% · other way +8.9% (n=11) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -3.18–+0.23% · other way +4.43% (n=11) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.34–-0.36% · other way +5.85% (n=11) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.21–-0.22% · other way +1.71% (n=9) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.62–+0.18% · other way +8.38% (n=11) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.11–-0.07% · other way +11.36% (n=11) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -2.9–+0.43% · other way +2.6% (n=11) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.66–-0.06% · other way -0.43% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.7–+0.88% · other way -0.69% (n=11) |
| 14 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.63–-0.28% · other way -6.39% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 35 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.1% | 64% | 39 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -2.5% | 65% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.5% | 62% | 37 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.6% | 61% | 37 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.5% | 62% | 39 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.5% | 61% | 34 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.6% | 59% | 35 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +2.8% · 5d -3.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 35 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +7bp | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | · |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.4% | 58% | 35 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +6.3% · 5d -7.3% ↺ fades | 59% | 25 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |