What if EU Critical Raw Materials Act forces supplier diversification?
Binding EU benchmarks cap single-country sourcing for strategic minerals, redirecting offtake toward allied suppliers and lifting non-China lithium, REE and graphite projects.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Binding EU benchmarks cap single-country sourcing for strategic minerals, redirecting offtake toward allied suppliers and lifting non-China lithium, REE and graphite projects. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Clean-energy abundance ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.53–+0.21% · other way -11.23% (n=4) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.62–-0.22% · other way +1.87% (n=4) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.84–+0.68% · other way -16.4% (n=4) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.4–-0.21% · other way -1.27% (n=5) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.57–+0.32% · other way -1.02% (n=4) |
| 6 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.7% hist -4.05–+0.61% · other way -13.6% (n=4) |
| 7 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.83–+0.39% · other way -0.26% (n=12) |
| 8 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.46–+0.36% · other way -12.84% (n=4) |
| 9 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.56–+0.33% |
| 10 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.6–+0.4% · other way -11.69% (n=5) |
| 11 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.71–+1.01% |
| 12 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.45–+0.99% · other way -7.33% (n=5) |
| 13 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.86–+3.63% · other way -8.4% (n=4) |
| 14 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.87–+0.96% · other way +4.37% (n=4) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.2% | 73% | 28 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -0.9% | 71% | 28 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -3.4% | 69% | 28 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.2% | 68% | 28 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -1.0% | 69% | 33 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +3.2% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 71% | 28 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.3% | 69% | 28 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 64% | 28 | 0.27 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.19 | · |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.6% | 59% | 32 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 28 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.9% | 57% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 26 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |