What if fresh reactor cracks force more of France's EDF fleet offline?
More EDF stress-corrosion outages tighten French nuclear into winter, bidding up TTF/German baseload and pulling EUR/USD lower on a worse terms-of-trade. Rhymes with H2-2022 when EDF's corrosion-driven half-fleet outage forced record French power imports and added to the gas squeeze. France normally exports power to Italy/UK/Germany; flipping to importer drains the whole NW-European pool. Forward angle: gas storage starts fuller than 2022, so the spike is shorter and more weather-path-dependent.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Fresh stress-corrosion cracks found in 2026 inspections force more EDF reactors offline, spiking European power prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · European energy ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -10.34–+6.43% · other way +6.89% (n=6) |
| 2 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.81–+0.32% · other way +0.57% (n=6) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade long on NG: -3.8% is off-channel — analogues are Iran missiles, Russian transit-end, Venezuela, not a cold-snap squeeze; fresh EDF outages spiking power are the gas-demand shock that sample omits.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 14 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -0.0% | 83% | 5 | 0.34 | · |
| NG NG | SHORT | -10.8% · 5d -3.7% | 68% | 11 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 9 | 0.07 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.3% | 52% | 11 | 0.04 | · |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 50% | 10 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.4% | 44% | 11 | 0.00 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 45% | 14 | 0.00 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d +6bp | 48% | 14 | 0.00 | · |
Why this probability
EDF stress-corrosion cracks recur historically, but a fresh price-spiking wave in 6mo is moderate-odds. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.