What if a Sierra megafire overruns the Lake Tahoe corridor?
A Tahoe-corridor megafire is a California insurance/credit event — record insured losses accelerate carrier exit (the linked State Farm scenario), freeze coastal mortgage lending, and reprice property; grains are irrelevant. Rhymes with the Jan-2025 LA Palisades/Eaton fires that drove insurers out and stressed the FAIR Plan. Transmission runs through CA homeowners' carriers, FAIR Plan reinsurance, and CA muni/property — not the wheat/corn shown.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A wind-driven 2026 Sierra megafire overruns Lake Tahoe-corridor towns, posting record insured losses and accelerating California carrier flight. :: 1133 :: State Farm exits California :: State Farm fully quits California homeowners statewide; FAIR Plan overflows, lenders tighten, and high-fire-zone property values and sales seize up. :: 1137 :: Dengue establishes in Paris :: Self-sustaining local dengue transmission takes hold in metropolitan Paris and northern France, the disease's furthest-north European foothold, straining clinics. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.